There is a strong public focus on the very low hydro reservoir situation in Norway-South as spot prices are surging, and we continue to experience an energy crisis across Europe. How can Norway-South avoid any risk of a supply squeeze?
Read StoryThe water reservoir filling levels in Norway-South (price zones NO1+NO2+NO5) are heading towards an all-time low at around 15% of capacity this spring (the long-term normal is about 33%). In real terms, the current level is about 10 TWh lower than usually expected.
Read StorySpot prices In Germany came during February out significantly lower than being traded at the end of January. Declining fuel prices towards the end of the month contributed somewhat, but the main reason for lower spot prices was the very strong wind power. EQ has studied the power balance, wind power, and spot price development for February to find how these market factors have come out.
Read StoryAcross the Iberian Peninsula, hydropower production levels have been extremely low since the New Year. With precipitation levels reaching 40-year lows, hydro production has dived well below normal levels, whilst the hydrological balance has reached a deficit of nearly -10 TWh for Spain. This accounts for around 30% of an average yearly production level.
Read StoryThe available nuclear capacity in France was very low at the end of Q4 last year, whilst outlooks for Q1-2022 were also lower than normal by the end of 2021. Around this time, we published a blog post focusing on the low availability during February, which could mean a strained supply situation in a cold-weather scenario. This was reflected in very strong forward prices for Q1-months during December as markets included strong risk premiums in case of a cold spell.
Read StoryThe German nuclear and coal exits since 2020 have had a strong influence on the country’s production fleet. In order to identify and illustrate the changes in power generation sources within the last 2 years, EQ has studied the German January power balances for 2020, 2021, and 2022. Initially, we have updated both the exit and capacity plans for the nuclear, as well as the coal-fleet as an introduction to the power balance and production numbers.
Read StoryElectricity generated by hydropower across the Alp region (France, Italy, Austria, Switzerland, and Germany) has an average annual net production of about 187 TWh - covering approximately 14% of total consumption in the area. Of these countries, France has the highest hydropower output at 59 TWh net, while Switzerland and Austria at about 35 TWh are what we would consider as the most typical hydropower areas – which cover about 50% of their consumption from hydropower. This blog post from EQ contains a short review of the hydropower conditions for 2021, as well as a view of the current situation and hydrological balance.
Read StorySince the start of November, the French power balance has been limited due to low nuclear availability. Given how strongly France is now connected to the GB market, we have seen spot prices close to 300 €/MWh - about 50 €/MWh higher than the German market. As the market continues to be dominated by strong gas and CO2 prices, the French Forward prices for January and February are significantly higher than the latest spot prices, indicating a high positive risk premium in a strained power market. In this blog, EQ takes a closer look into the fundamental power balance numbers for France in Q1-2022, focusing on the outlook for nuclear generation and consumption uncertainty.
Read StoryGermany has already begun its coal-exit plans, which started by closing down 4.8 GWs of hard coal by 31.12.2020. The aim is to close all coal-fired units in Germany by 2038, helping to reduce CO2 emissions and fulfill wider EU decarbonisation targets.
Read StoryBack on September 17th, we posted a blog focusing on the very low hydro reservoir levels in the Norway-South area at the time, alongside the impacts of strong demand for increased imports – required to cover both consumption and demands for exports on the new UK interconnector. In this blog, EQ will look closer at recent development and the outlook for the winter in Norway-South.
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