Some key observations:
- SE1 inflows will hit a new maximum from June 15th as the snow level in the northernmost area is still well above normal.
- Inflows in SE2 are culminating this week as the snow level declines.
The delayed spring thaw and inflow means that the normal increase in run-river production (ROR) during the melting period has been delayed, too.
New run-of-river models:
EQ has recently developed run-river production models for all main rivers in Sweden (with SE1 and SE2 having the highest relevance).
The following charts from our online service show the development for ROR-production thisyear compared to average, 95%- and 5%-tile for the period 2000-2020:
We observe the very delayed increase for SE1, and the increasing trend for SE2.
EQ expects run-river production will increase the next few weeks before culminating in the latter part of June.
The short-term (buffer) reservoirs in SE1 and SE2 are excepted to reach their summer-levels in a week or two.
Conclusions:
- From the end of June, the run-river production will be more exposed to the precipitation situation as the melting period comes to an end.
- Pricewise, this means the downward pressure on spot prices from the Swedish hydropower system will continue until the end of June.
