Expected consumption growth in the Nordpool areas until 2040
In October 2021, Energy Quantified (EQ) published a blogpost about the expected growth in electricity consumption across the Nordic countries by 2040. To show the capabilities of EQ’s new long-term consumption data (generated on an hourly basis until 2040 for all individual Nordic price zones) we have updated those previous predictions in this new blogpost. Read on to find out more.
Background
As governments, industries and businesses across the world look to decarbonise their operations, electricity is set to become the major fuel driving the energy transition.
This means that demand for electricity in the future is going to become higher than it currently is today, as Industrial manufacturers will rely more heavily on green power to run their businesses and electric cars become more common.
To show the effects of this, EQ have updated our long-term consumption forecast for the Nordic area in this blogpost.
All main consumption sectors for each country and price zone have been estimated individually. The figures we have prioritised and chosen to publish here are based on our assumptions from the different consumption sectors.
You can consider them our “best guess” of how consumption will develop over time, based on reports from external sources such as the Nordic TSO’s and the Nordic energy authorities.
The “Fit for 55” emission target from the EU is not a separate electricity system target – and so our consumption forecast is not directly connected to this total emission target.
However, we do assume that most of the electricity consumption growth in the Nordpool area has to be covered by new renewable or no-emission production.
Nordic consumption until 2040
The table below shows the overall Nordic consumption estimates by sector from EQ. These numbers show us that the Nordic electricity consumption is on track to grow from about 380 TWh today, to 501 TWh by 2030, and further to 656 TWh by 2040.
In the next table you find the 2040 numbers from our previous blogpost published in October 2021, alongside the difference from our updated forecast. The overall consumption has increased by 97 TWh since 2021. The majority of this is accounted for by an increase in power consumption by hydrogen-producers (+72 TWh) whilst transport, battery and data centre sectors also account for a notable amount of consumption growth.
The data clearly shows that hydrogen production has the potential to be a game changer for the Nordic electricity market. However, for that to happen, this growth in demand must also be matched by an equal level of growth in power production from renewable energy sources.
In the attachment, you will find a detailed overview of assumptions for the consumptions sectors in each country. We also have similar estimates for consumption growth in all Nordic price zones shown later in this blogpost.
Below, you can see the future consumption estimates for each country. Whilst the overall Nordic consumption is set to increase 72% by 2040, we see significant variations between individual countries. Forecasts for Finland suggest large increases in electrical demand for the hydrogen sector. By comparison, fossil-fuel based district heating currently used in Denmark is likely to be replaced by electrical heat-pumps where possible.
The chart above displays our updated hourly consumption models out to 2040 including our growth assumptions.
New sectors like hydrogen, battery production, data centres and transport are modelled with a flat hourly profile.
This means that the hourly profiles are modified towards 2040, and peak-hours are not increasing as strongly as the general consumption growth.
In the chart below, we show the overall Nordic hourly consumption profiles between 2022 and 2040. Maximum peak-hour level by 2040 is set to reach about 91 GWh/h, 50% higher than the equivalent 2022 level of 60 GWh/h.
The average consumption in 2040 increases by 72% from 2022 - proving that we do not expect hourly profiles to increase as strongly as the overall consumption level.
The hourly data profiles generated for all price zones are available in our data centre.
Growth in the price zones for Norway and Sweden
The figures below show our expectations for different consumption sectors on both a price zone and national level for Norway.
The equivalent numbers for Sweden are shown here:
Final words
This blog shows EQ’s long-term consumption forecast for the Nordic countries.
The consumption data is modelled in an hourly resolution for all price zones and this data will be available from our data centre soon. We will make an announcement for all of our customers as soon as this is available.
If you have any questions regarding our consumption outlook and modelling, please contact us emailing support@energyquantified.com
Sources:
Statnett, NVE, DNV (Norway and all Nordic countries)
Energimyndigheten, SVK (Sweden)
Fingrid, Finergy (Finland)
Energistyrelsen, Energinet DK (Denmark)
Attachment – Consumption sectors in the Nordic countries 2022 - > 2040
