Expected production and power balances for the Nordpool areas until 2040
Following on from our last blogpost looking at the expected consumption growth in the Nordic countries, Energy Quantified is now looking at the other side of the energy equation. Read on to find out our predictions for production growth across the Nordics and net power balances until 2040.
Background
In order to continue reducing carbon emissions, the world needs more renewable power. That is something we all know already, but just how can we expect the fuel mix to look across the Nordics?
Based on long-term consumption forecasts and data from other external sources, we have now updated our long-term production forecast for the Nordic Area. The main consumption driver towards 2040 is related to the production of hydrogen, which will need to be complemented by an increase in renewable electricity production.
Increased wind power (both onshore and offshore installations) will be the main driver on the production side, but Nordic solar production is also expected to grow significantly.
How production capacities across the Nordic countries and price zones will increase is something that will vary significantly from place to place. In order to show this, we have made detailed studies and created models for each production category within each price zone – giving us estimates for long-term production figures and power balances.
Our forecasts here are intended to be a “best guess” of how consumption, production and net power balance will develop over time, based on reports from external sources such as the Nordic TSO’s and the Nordic energy authorities.
Please also note that the “Fit for 55” emission target from the EU is not formulated as a separate electricity system target. This means that our long-term forecasts cannot be directly connected to this total emission target, although the external sources have all had the emission targets as their reference for their outlooks.
Nordic power balances until 2040
The table below shows the overall Nordic power balance estimates from EQ, including details about how the different production categories are expected to change over time. These numbers show us that the yearly Nordic electricity production is estimated to grow from about 444 TWh today, to 546 TWh by 2030, and further to 683 TWh by 2040. Total growth therefore is expected to be 239 TWh.
In our estimates, we assume that the Nordic net yearly export will gradually be reduced towards 2040. The main uncertain factor in this estimate is the expected increase in hydrogen consumption and the associated growth in wind power required to meet this demand. In the attachment, you will find similar tables for production levels and power balances for each country within the scope of this study. Similar estimates are also made for each price zone, but this data is not available in this report.
Renewable growth in the Nordic market until 2040
Renewable growth until 2040 is estimated to be 266 TWh, as shown in the overview table below.
In the following tables and charts, we show the estimated development of both wind and solar power for each country during the period. The net increase of 12 TWh Hydropower relates to Norway only.
To provide an example of our hourly modelling, the next chart displays offshore Wind from price zones DK1, DK2 and NO2 for the period 2023-2040. Production from NO2 is estimated to start by 2028.
Power balances across the Nordic countries and regions
EQ’s long-term estimates are modelled for all price zones. The data, shown in hourly resolution, will soon be available in our data centre for customers. Based on the price zone data, we can show five-yearly expected power balances for the southern and northern regions of Norway and Sweden – shown in the following tables. Finland and Denmark are included on a national level only.
Final words
This blog shows the updated EQ long-term production and power balance forecasts for the Nordic countries. The estimates are based on several external sources, and are intended to be a “best guess” of current outlooks.
All of this data is modelled in hourly resolution for all price zones, will be available in EQ’s data centre soon. The long-term estimates will then be updated regularly as new information arrives.
If you have any questions regarding our consumption outlook and modelling, please contact us emailing support@energyquantified.com
Sources:
Statnett, NVE, DNV (Norway and all Nordic countries)
Energimyndigheten, SVK (Sweden)
Fingrid, Finergy (Finland)
Energistyrelsen, Energinet DK (Denmark)
Montelnews
Attachment – Production and power balance in the Nordic countries 2022 - > 2040
