Market indicators for South-Eastern Europe – week 46

Eylert Ellefsen

August can become an exciting month for traders in the SEE region. Recent precipitation forecasts have remained very dry. If these continue, there will be a further reduction in hydropower production and an additional upward pressure on spot-prices in the SEE-region. This is the conclusion gleaned from EQ’s new Pan European hydro model, which will be launched soon.

Eylert Ellefsen

EQ's new hydrology models indicate that we enter August with large differences in hydrological balance across the Alpine area. Switzerland and Austria now have reservoir fillings of, respectively, 12% and 8% above their seasonal normal, whereas France and Italy are on their seasonal normal. High snow reservoirs and delayed melting during the spring, was followed by a heatwave end of June and start of July. This sparked melting, which in turn led to high inflow levels and ultimately rapidly increasing hydro reservoir levels in Switzerland and Austria.

Hugo Birkelund

As rising river temperatures may affect the output at thermal power plants due to cooling water restrictions, we invite you to suggest a river location for which we can provide forecasts and historical data.