Back to Blog

Normalized hydropower situation in the Southeast Europe by Christmas and New Year's Eve

Eylert Ellefsen
Archived blog post. This blog post has been transferred from our previous blogging platform. Links and images may not work as intended.

Despite a dry spell in October, the hydropower situation in Southeast Europe improved significantly during a wet November. Throughout December, the situation has normalized in most areas.

Sign up to try Energy Quantified for free. No payment or credit card required.

In short, we can summarize the hydropower situation for Southeast Europe, including Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, Romania, Montenegro, North-Macedonia, Bulgaria and Greece, as follows:

  1. Hydrological balance across the region is slightly positive before the New Year's Eve.
  2. Precipitation outlooks for the Christmas and New Year’s weeks show about 115% of normal
  3. Production outlooks for the Christmas and New Year’s weeks are close to 100% of normal.

Background and current situation

The hydrological balance across the region is slightly higher than the long-term normal, so the hydropower supply situation is adequate before Q1-2020. Looking at Romania and Serbia, we see that both inflow and production increased during November, then somewhat decreased during the first part of December. The latest weather forecast indicates increased inflow levels during the Christmas period.

About a quarter of the total supply in the region is hydropower, so variations hydro production has a strong impact on the power market.

Estimated hydrological balance at the end of week 51. Note that the numbers are shown as the deviation from the normal. Numbers in TWh.
Hydrological balance for Romania.
Snow and groundwater for Romania.
Water reservoir filling for Romania.

Outlooks for the Christmas week and towards New Year’s Eve

The general outlook towards the Christmas period and New Year’s Eve is that we will see lots of precipitation start of the Christmas week (51), but production outlooks are close to normal.

For the entire region, our estimates show 125% and 110% of normal precipitation for weeks 51 and 52 respectively. The hydropower production for week 51 is estimated to come close to the normal in the region as a whole. This means about 1 TWh for the entire week or an hourly average production of 6350 MWh/h.

Closing words

The Montel-EQ team provides you with updated hydrological analysis throughout the Christmas period, preparing you for the start of the new year.

If you have any questions regarding the hydropower situation here or anywhere else in Europe, please send me an email at eylert@energyquantified.com.

More from the Blog

French market Q1 - a perfect storm?

Eylert Ellefsen
Eylert Ellefsen

Since the start of November, the French power balance has been limited due to low nuclear availability. Given how strongly France is now connected to the GB market, we have seen spot prices close to 300 €/MWh - about 50 €/MWh higher than the German market. As the market continues to be dominated by strong gas and CO2 prices, the French Forward prices for January and February are significantly higher than the latest spot prices, indicating a high positive risk premium in a strained power market. In this blog, EQ takes a closer look into the fundamental power balance numbers for France in Q1-2022, focusing on the outlook for nuclear generation and consumption uncertainty.

Read Story

German fuelswitching reversed by the extreme gas prices

Eylert Ellefsen
Eylert Ellefsen

Germany has already begun its coal-exit plans, which started by closing down 4.8 GWs of hard coal by 31.12.2020. The aim is to close all coal-fired units in Germany by 2038, helping to reduce CO2 emissions and fulfill wider EU decarbonisation targets.

Read Story

Norway-South is lacking 2000 MW production capacity to cover the border capacities towards both UK and Germany

Eylert Ellefsen
Eylert Ellefsen

Back on September 17th, we posted a blog focusing on the very low hydro reservoir levels in the Norway-South area at the time, alongside the impacts of strong demand for increased imports – required to cover both consumption and demands for exports on the new UK interconnector. In this blog, EQ will look closer at recent development and the outlook for the winter in Norway-South.

Read Story

Ready to try Energy Quantified?

No payment or credit card required.
Would you rather like a personal demo? Book a demo